Several years ago, in reference to the paper that is being reprinted in this issue of the Journal, Dr.
Philip Sartwell wrote, « I believe this paper has been mentioned in bibliographies more often than anything [else] I have done. » The paper, which was published in 1950 (1), is the first of three papers that Sartwell wrote and published on incubation periods (1-3).
In this first paper, he explained that the lognormal model fitted a variety of observations of the incubation periods of several infectious diseases.
From a review of empirical data, he defined two parameters with which to characterize the distribution : the median incubation period as a measure of central tendency-a better estimate than the arithmetic mean-and the dispersion factor as a measure of variability.
The paper further highlighted, with a number of examples, various uses of the incubation period.
Since the publication of this paper by Sartwell, the lognormal model has been used to study the incubation periods of a number of infectious and noninfectious diseases (4).
The first application of the model to the study of the incubation periods of noninfectious diseases was a study of the latency of neoplastic diseases (5).
The model has been used more recently to study the incubation periods of drug-induced diseases (6), genetic diseases (7), Reye's syndrome (4), and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (8).
Mots-clés Pascal : Incubation, Intervalle temps, Infection, Homme, Méthode mesure, Analyse statistique, Fonction logarithmique
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Incubation, Time interval, Infection, Human, Measurement method, Statistical analysis, Logarithmic function
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 95-0221719
Code Inist : 002B05A03. Création : 09/06/1995.