Application of Markov process modelling to health status switching behaviour of infants.
This study is an attempt to apply Markov process modelling to health status switching behaviour of infants.
The data for the study consist of monthly records of diagnosed illnesses for 1152 children, each observed from the month of first contact with Kasangati Health Centre, Kampala, Uganda, until age 18 months.
Only two states of health are considered in the study, a « Health » state, denoted by W : (for Well), and an « illness » state denoted by S : (for Sick).
The data are thus reduced to monthly records (W or S) of the states of health of the study sample.
The simplest model of dependence of current health state on the past is one that links the current state to the immediately preceding month only ; that is a Markov model.
The starting point of this study was therefore to determine the proportions of children making the transitions W-W, W-S, S-W, S-S, from one month to the next, to month from birth (month 0) to 18 months of age (month 18).
These were used as estimates of the probabilities of making these transitions for each month from birth.
Mots-clés Pascal : Santé, Nourrisson, Modèle Markov, Modèle mathématique, Ouganda, Probabilité transition, Homme, Afrique
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Health, Infant, Markov model, Mathematical model, Uganda, Transition probability, Human, Africa
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 95-0210729
Code Inist : 002B30A01A1. Création : 09/06/1995.