logo BDSP

Base documentaire

  1. Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.

    Article - En anglais

    Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems.

    The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped.

    In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples'preconceptions.

    Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures.

    A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed : « sobriety in sufficiency, » « risk avoidance, » « technology on demand, » and « free market unfettered. » Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development.

    Mots-clés Pascal : Politique sanitaire, Planification, Prédiction

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Health policy, Planning, Prediction

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 95-0028871

    Code Inist : 002B30A01C. Création : 09/06/1995.