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  1. An age and period reconstruction of the HIV epidemic in Italy.

    Article - En anglais


    The majority of AIDS cases in Italy are among intravenous drug users (68%) and homosexual men.

    An age, period and cohort (APC) model is presented and used to reconstruct the HIV epidemics in Italy.

    Projections of AIDS-related conditions (ARC) and AIDS cases are attempted based on a hypothesis of minima and an endemic hypothesis.


    The model is a generalization of the usual back-calculation method which considers age, competitive mortality, susceptible population and therapy effects.

    Mots-clés Pascal : SIDA, Virose, Infection, Modèle, Epidémie, Rétrospective, Age, Evolution, Epidémiologie, Italie, Europe, Historique, Immunopathologie, Immunodéficit

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : AIDS, Viral disease, Infection, Models, Epidemic, Retrospective, Age, Evolution, Epidemiology, Italy, Europe, Case history, Immunopathology, Immune deficiency

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 95-0000611

    Code Inist : 002B06D01. Création : 09/06/1995.