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  1. A time-series analysis of trends in firearm-related homicide and suicide.

    Article - En anglais

    In order to determine whether firearm use was an increasing component of the general pattern of homicide in Cape Town, South Africa, hidden Markov time-series models were used to examine a week-by-week count of firearm homicides, non-firearm homicides, firearm suicides and non-firearm suicides for the 6-year period from 1986 to 1991.

    Of several models fitted to the proportion of homicides that involved firearms, the one which incorporated a discrete upward shift in the middle of 1991 was the most successful.

    There was no evidence of a similar upward shift in the proportion of the suicides that involved firearms.

    The sharp increase in 1991 in the probability that a homicide involved the use of a firearm is consistent with a reported upsurge in violence related to the so-called « taxi wars ».

    Mots-clés Pascal : Meurtre, Arme à feu, Suicide, Epidémiologie, Homme, Série temporelle, Modèle, Méthodologie, République Sud Africaine, Afrique

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Murder, Fire arm, Suicide, Epidemiology, Human, Time series, Models, Methodology, South Africa, Africa

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 94-0261605

    Code Inist : 002B18C11. Création : 199406.