In order to determine whether firearm use was an increasing component of the general pattern of homicide in Cape Town, South Africa, hidden Markov time-series models were used to examine a week-by-week count of firearm homicides, non-firearm homicides, firearm suicides and non-firearm suicides for the 6-year period from 1986 to 1991.
Of several models fitted to the proportion of homicides that involved firearms, the one which incorporated a discrete upward shift in the middle of 1991 was the most successful.
There was no evidence of a similar upward shift in the proportion of the suicides that involved firearms.
The sharp increase in 1991 in the probability that a homicide involved the use of a firearm is consistent with a reported upsurge in violence related to the so-called « taxi wars ».
Mots-clés Pascal : Meurtre, Arme à feu, Suicide, Epidémiologie, Homme, Série temporelle, Modèle, Méthodologie, République Sud Africaine, Afrique
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Murder, Fire arm, Suicide, Epidemiology, Human, Time series, Models, Methodology, South Africa, Africa
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 94-0261605
Code Inist : 002B18C11. Création : 199406.