National attention has focused on the goal of attaining 50% primary care practitioners to facilitate patient access and cost-effectiveness.
To determine how long it might take to achieve this goal, we used the Bureau of Health Professions' aggregate physician supply model to forecast the generalist-specialist balance.
Assuming that 30% of graduates will enter generalist practice after 1993 (the percentage in the mid-1980s), the number of generalists would increase from 174940 in 1990 to 232000 in 2040 (77 per 100000 population), but the percentage would remain at about 30%; specialists would continue to make up about 70% of all active physicians, but their total number would grow from 345 600 to 537 000 (178 per 100 000 population).
Mots-clés Pascal : Système santé, Exploration, Homme, Médecin, Médecin généraliste, Pratique professionnelle, Politique sanitaire
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Health system, Exploration, Human, Physician, General practitioner, Professional practice, Health policy
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 93-0679782
Code Inist : 002B30A05. Création : 199406.