In northwest European countries maternal age is increasing.
This will lead to an increase of the prevalence of Down syndrome conceptuses.
Meanwhile, the increased use of prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis (PCD) will lead to a decrease in the prevalence of Down syndrome among livebirths.
We were interested to know what the result of these two opposite developments would be in the near future, and we describe here a model to quantify these processes and the resulting livebirth prevalence of Down syndrome.
The model is demonstrated for The Netherlands from 1992 to 2001.
The predicted livebirth prevalence for The Netherlands in 1992 is 1.36 per 1000.
Demographic factors will cause an increase to 1.76 per 1000 in 2001 with present indications for PCD and a utilization ratio of 50%.
Mots-clés Pascal : Chromosome G21, Prédiction, Age mère, Trisomie, Aneuploïdie, Aberration chromosomique, Epidémiologie, Prévalence, Pays Bas, Europe, Diagnostic, Prénatal, Modèle statistique, Homme
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : G21-Chromosome, Prediction, Maternal age, Trisomy, Aneuploidy, Chromosomal aberration, Epidemiology, Prevalence, Netherlands, Europe, Diagnosis, Prenatal, Statistical model, Human
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 93-0617024
Code Inist : 002B23B. Création : 199406.