New forms of catalytic epidemic models were developed to estimate the incidence of primary toxoplasmosis infection from age- and time-specific seroprevalence data collected from persons aged 0-100 years in South Yorkshire, England, 1969-1990.
Piecewise constant and exponential polynomial functions were used to assess the way in which incidence depended on age and time, and to guide the choice of parametric models suitable for prediction.
Incidence estimates were biased unless both age- and time-dependence were allowed for.
New findings on the epidemiology of this infection emerged.
Incidence appears to have fallen sixfold between 1915 and 1970, but has remained stable for the last 20 years.
There is a marked peak in incidence in childhood.
Mots-clés Pascal : Toxoplasmose, Protozoose, Infection, Homme, Modèle statistique, Epidémiologie, Méthodologie, Age, Variation temporelle, Sérologie, Incidence, Royaume Uni, Europe
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Toxoplasmosis, Protozoal disease, Infection, Human, Statistical model, Epidemiology, Methodology, Age, Time variation, Serology, Incidence, United Kingdom, Europe
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 93-0538221
Code Inist : 002B30A01A1. Création : 199406.