Observation of an essentially linear growth in time of U.S. and New York city AIDS cases, from about 1984 through early 1988, is shown to imply a relatively constant rate of transmission of HIV infection in its early stages, as has been observed for limited times in cohorts of male homosexuals in San Francisco and New York City.
Observation by Potterat et al. of an exceptionally close intertwining of spatial and social patterns of endemic gonorrhea within a minority population, coupled with a percolation process model of HIV transmission within geographically constrained social networks, leads to inference that a constant rate of HIV transmission, in turn, implies a « surface growth » phenomenon resulting in a traveling wave of infection advancing at a fixed « velocity » along a « one dimensional socio-geographic network ».
Mots-clés Pascal : Virose, Infection, Lentivirinae, Retroviridae, Virus, Amérique du Nord, Amérique, Immunodéficit acquis syndrome, Transmission homme homme, Virus immunodéficience humaine, Epidémiologie, Analyse mathématique, Organisation sociale, Répartition géographique, Immunopathologie, Hémopathie, Etats Unis
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Viral disease, Infection, Lentivirinae, Retroviridae, Virus, North America, America, AIDS, Transmission from man to man, Human immunodeficiency virus, Epidemiology, Mathematical analysis, Social organization, Geographic distribution, Immunopathology, Hemopathy, United States
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 91-0501301
Code Inist : 002B06D01. Création : 199406.