Hip fractures constitute a major health problem.
For effective prevention, high-risk groups need to be identified.
The objective here was to develop hip fracture risk scores while assessing the added value of bone mineral density relative to more conventional risk indicators.
We prospectively followed during 4 years a cohort of 5208 persons (2193 men) aged 55 years and over from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study conducted in the Netherlands.
Risk scores for hip fracture were constructed using several conventional risk indicators requiring interview and anthropometry only, and bone mineral density.
During follow-up, 50 persons (14 men) suffered hip fracture.
Hip fracture risk was independently determined by age, gender, height, the use of a walking aid, cigarette smoking, and either bone mineral density or weight.
We developed two risk scores, with and without bone mineral density.
The observed 4-year risk ranged from 3/3389 (0.1%) to 17/169 (10.1%) for the lowest and highest category of the score including bone mineral density, respectively.
For the score without bone mineral density, these risks were 8/3117 (0.3%) and 16/144 (11.1%), respectively.
The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve indicating discriminatory power was 0.88 for the risk score including, and 0.83 for the score excluding, bone mineral density (p for difference=0.04). (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Fracture, Hanche, Echelle évaluation, Epidémiologie, Facteur risque, Densité, Os, Personne âgée, Homme, Etude longitudinale, Facteur prédictif, Pays Bas, Europe, Membre inférieur, Système ostéoarticulaire pathologie, Traumatisme, Système ostéoarticulaire
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Fracture, Hip, Evaluation scale, Epidemiology, Risk factor, Density, Bone, Elderly, Human, Follow up study, Predictive factor, Netherlands, Europe, Lower limb, Diseases of the osteoarticular system, Trauma, Osteoarticular system
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 99-0503538
Code Inist : 002B16H. Création : 22/03/2000.