Predictive modeling of effects under global change.
IEP'98 Issues in Environmental Pollution : The State and Use of predictive Models. International Symposium. Denver, CO, USA, 1998/08/23.
The status of computer simulation models from around the world for evaluating the possible ecological, environmental, and societal consequences of global change is presented in this paper.
In addition, a brief synopsis of the state of the science of these impacts is included.
Issues considered include future changes in climate and patterns of land use for societal needs.
Models discussed relate to vegetation (e.g. crop), soil, bio-geochemistry, water, and wildlife responses to conventional, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation.
Also described are models of these responses, alone and interactively, to increased CO2, other air pollutants and UV-B radiation, as the state of the science allows.
Further, models of land-use change are included.
Additionally, global multiple sector models of environment, natural resources, human population dynamics, economics, energy, and political relations are reviewed for integrated impact assessment.
To the extent available, information on computer software and hardware requirements is presented for the various models.
The paper concludes with comments about using these technologies as they relate to ecological risk assessment for policy decision analysis.
Such an effort is hampered by considerable uncertainties with the output of existing models, because of the uncertainties associated with input data and the definitions of their dose-response relationships. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Modification climat, Effet serre, Réchauffement, Modélisation, Modèle prévision, Simulation ordinateur, Analyse risque, Impact environnement, Ecosystème, Végétal, Animal, Diversité biologique, Biogéochimie, Occupation sol, Homme, Pollution air, Rayonnement UV, Algorithme, Echelon régional, Echelle planétaire, Système aide décision, Politique environnement
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Climate modification, Greenhouse effect, Warming, Modeling, Forecast model, Computer simulation, Risk analysis, Environment impact, Ecosystem, Vegetals, Animal, Biodiversity, Biogeochemistry, Land use, Human, Air pollution, Ultraviolet radiation, Algorithm, Regional scope, Planetary scale, Decision support system, Environmental policy
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 99-0472461
Code Inist : 001E02D10. Création : 22/03/2000.