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  1. Global change : state of the science.

    Article, Communication - En anglais

    IEP'98 Issues in Environmental Pollution : The State and Use of predictive Models. International Symposium. Denver, CO, USA, 1998/08/23.

    Only recently, within a few decades, have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment.

    In the early 1980s, atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier.

    These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer.

    Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere.

    As a result of prompt international policy agreements, the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery.

    A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate.

    The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex.

    This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change.

    Nevertheless, the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole.

    This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues, their potential impacts, and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations.

    Mots-clés Pascal : Article synthèse, Pollution air, Ozone, Emission polluant, Gaz effet serre, Effet sur climat, Modification climat, Réchauffement, Modélisation, Modèle prévision, Analyse tendance, Impact environnement, Ecosystème, Homme, Politique environnement, Prévention pollution

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Review, Air pollution, Ozone, Pollutant emission, Greenhouse gases, Effect on climate, Climate modification, Warming, Modeling, Forecast model, Trend analysis, Environment impact, Ecosystem, Human, Environmental policy, Pollution prevention

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 99-0472015

    Code Inist : 001D16C01. Création : 22/03/2000.