Projecting the need for hip replacement over the next three decades : influence of changing demography and threshold for surgery.
Objectives-To estimate the requirement for total hip replacement in the United Kingdom over the next three decades Methods-Projection of age and sex specific hip replacements in the UK over 10 year intervals taking account of demographic change and the extrapolation of arthroplasty rates from Sweden ; a country with recently introduced guidelines.
Assuming no change in the age and sex specific arthroplasty rates, the estimated number of hip replacements will increase by 40% over the next 30 year period because of demographic change alone.
The proportionate change will be substantially higher in men (51%) than women (33%), with a doubling of the number of male hip replacements in those aged over 85.
Changes in the threshold for surgery may increase this further-up to double the current number.
Conclusion-A sharp rise in hip replacements will be needed to satisfy needs in the UK population over the next 30 years.
Mots-clés Pascal : Prothèse, Total, Hanche, Technique, Traitement, Extrapolation, Epidémiologie, Politique sanitaire, Royaume Uni, Europe, Personne âgée, Homme, Chirurgie orthopédique
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Prosthesis, Total, Hip, Technique, Treatment, Extrapolation, Epidemiology, Health policy, United Kingdom, Europe, Elderly, Human, Orthopedic surgery
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 99-0465941
Code Inist : 002B25I. Création : 22/03/2000.