Quantifying uncertainty in human health risk assessment using probabilistic techniques.
International conference on computer simulation in risk analysis and hazard mitigation. Valencia, ESP, 1998/10.
Quantitative chemical risk assessment is an increasingly important tool in making risk management decisions in the United States.
In such an assessment, available data and information regarding chemical toxicity is combined with estimates of exposure to calculate the likelihood and severity of human health effects.
In some circumstances, limitations in evaluating chemical toxicity and exposure potential introduce significant uncertainties into a risk assessment.
This paper discusses the use of probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo techniques, to quantify the uncertainty in the human health risk assessment process.
Case studies include the evaluation of emissions from an existing commercial hazardous waste incinerator, and the development of remediation levels at a hazardous waste site.
These studies indicate that risk estimates which are based on standard regulatory default assumptions regarding toxicity and exposure can be an order of magnitude or more higher than central tendency risk estimates, and may also be significantly higher than 90th or 95th percentile risk estimates which are calculated using probabilistic techniques.
Mots-clés Pascal : Homme, Composé chimique, Toxicité, Evaluation, Risque, Méthode étude, Etats Unis, Amérique du Nord, Amérique, Méthode Monte Carlo, Incertitude, Approche probabiliste, Etude statistique
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Human, Chemical compound, Toxicity, Evaluation, Risk, Investigation method, United States, North America, America, Monte Carlo method, Uncertainty, Probabilistic approach, Statistical study
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 99-0417264
Code Inist : 002B30A01A1. Création : 22/03/2000.