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  1. Long-run abstinence after narcotics abuse : What are the odds ?

    Article - En anglais

    We consider the long-run odds that narcotics users remain abstinent after methadone treatment.

    A flexible split-hazard specification that allows for individual-level differences in both the long-run probability of eventual relapse and the short-run timing of relapse is developed.

    The model is applied to a comprehensive data set involving individual drug abuse and treatment histories for over 800 addicts.

    Our findings indicate (1) that the short-run success of methadone programs does not automatically translate into long-run abstinence, which suggests the need for aftercare, (2) the value of preventing a teenager or young adult from initiating, and (3) the possibility of identifying high-risk groups, both in terms of age of first daily use and in terms of ethnicity.

    Mots-clés Pascal : Risque, Méthadone, Fonction survie, Maximum vraisemblance, Estimation paramètre, Dépendance du temps, Récidive, Abstinence, Toxicomanie, Narcotique

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Risk, Methadone, Survival function, Maximum likelihood, Parameter estimation, Time dependence, Relapse, Abstinence, Drug addiction

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 99-0256075

    Code Inist : 002B18C05A. Création : 16/11/1999.