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  1. How good is the Prevent model for estimating the health benefits of prevention ?

    Article - En anglais

    Study objective-Prevent is a public health model for estimating the effect on mortality of changes in exposure to risk factors.

    When the model is tested by simulating a development that has already taken place, the results may differ considerably from the actual situation.

    The purpose of this study is to test the Prevent model by applying it to a synthetic cohort in which the development is unaffected by concealed factors.

    Design-A micro-simulation model was developed to create basic data for Prevent and give « exact » results as to changes in risk factor prevalences and mortality.

    The estimates of Prevent simulations were compared with the « exact » results.

    Main results-Modelling one risk factor related to a cause specific mortality gave fairly similar results by the two methods.

    Including two risk factors Prevent tends slightly to overestimate the health benefits of prevention.

    Conclusions-The differences between the « exact » mortality and the Prevent estimates will be small for realistic scenarios and Prevent provide reasonable estimates of the health benefits of prevention.

    Mots-clés Pascal : Prévention, Action, Analyse statistique, Mortalité, Facteur risque, Evolution, Epidémiologie, Méthodologie, Evaluation, Modèle, Homme

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Prevention, Action, Statistical analysis, Mortality, Risk factor, Evolution, Epidemiology, Methodology, Evaluation, Models, Human

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 99-0227661

    Code Inist : 002B30A01A1. Création : 16/11/1999.