Reductions in risk behaviour provide the most consistent explanation for declining HIV-1 prevalence in Uganda.
To monitor the HIV-1 epidemic in Western Uganda and the possible impact of interventions.
Results from sentinel surveillance of HIV-1 seroprevalence were compared with cross-sectional serosurvey data and model simulations.
Age-specific trends in HIV-1 prevalence between 1991 and 1997 amongst antenatal clinic (ANC) attenders in the town of Fort Portal, where a comprehensive AIDS control programme has been implemented since 1991, were analysed.
Results were compared with outputs from a mathematical model simulating the HIV-1 epidemic in Uganda.
Two scenarios were modelled : one without and one with behaviour change.
Sentinel surveillance data were compared with data from a population-based HIV-1 serosurvey at the study site, which was carried out in early 1995.
Data from 3271 ANC attenders identified greater education and being single as risk factors for HIV-1 infection.
A significant decrease of risk for women with secondary school education over time was observed, whereas the risk for illiterate women remained high.
Among women aged 15-19 years (n=1045) education and marital status-adjusted HIV-1 prevalence declined steadily from 32.2% in 1991 to 10.3% in 1997.
For 20-24-year-old women (n=1010) HIV-1 prevalence increased until 1993 from 19.9% to 31.7% and decreased thereafter (21.7% in 1997). (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : SIDA, Virose, Infection, Virus HIV1, Virus immunodéficience humaine, Lentivirus, Retroviridae, Virus, Modèle mathématique, Surveillance sanitaire, Comportement sexuel, Epidémiologie, Facteur risque, Prévalence, Ouganda, Afrique, Evolution, Epidémie, Homme, Education santé, Programme sanitaire, Efficacité, Immunopathologie, Immunodéficit
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : AIDS, Viral disease, Infection, HIV-1 virus, Human immunodeficiency virus, Lentivirus, Retroviridae, Virus, Mathematical model, Sanitary surveillance, Sexual behavior, Epidemiology, Risk factor, Prevalence, Uganda, Africa, Evolution, Epidemic, Human, Health education, Sanitary program, Efficiency, Immunopathology, Immune deficiency
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 99-0172483
Code Inist : 002B05C02D. Création : 16/11/1999.