A predictive method for estimating the 137Cs contamination of freshwater tish in Hong Kong after an acute deposition is presented.
This method applies a published aquatic model to the freshwater fish culture ponds in Hung Kong.
The predicted transfer coefficient, in terms of peak concentration in fish (wet weight) per unit deposition, is found to be generally lower than those observed in some European and UK lakes after the Chernobyl accident.
While the water-fish concentration factor is undoubtedly an important factor, some unique features of the local freshwater fish culture systems, such as the absence of further radioactivity input from catchment to the fish ponds after deposition, and high removal of radioactivity by sedimentation, also play significant roles.
Sensitivity of model parameters and uncertainties of predietion are also studied.
This predictive model can serve as a useful tool in emergency planning and in countermeasure implementation during a nuclear emergency in Hong Kong.
Mots-clés Pascal : Pisces, Vertebrata, Radiocontamination, Césium, Eau douce, Prédiction, Analyse risque, Chaîne alimentaire, Hong Kong, Chine, Asie, Modélisation, Estimation paramètre, Analyse sensibilité
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Pisces, Vertebrata, Radioactive contamination, Cesium, Fresh water, Prediction, Risk analysis, Trophic chain, Hong Kong, China, Asia, Modeling, Parameter estimation, Sensitivity analysis
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 99-0109342
Code Inist : 002A08F03. Création : 16/11/1999.