Objectives-Firstly to evaluate future mortality from mesothelioma in France with an age-period-cohort approach and evaluate different hypotheses on risk of mesothelioma for the most recent birth cohort.
Secondly to compare the results with a British and an American study.
Thirdly to study if any trends were detectable on data for women which would be consistent with the consequences of increasing environmental exposure to asbestos.
Methods-Estimates of mortality from mesothelioma among men and women in France from 1950 to 1995 were based on the analysis of the pleural cancer mortality data coded 163 in the ninth revision of the international classification of diseases (ICD-9).
Correction factors were used to derive the mortality from mesothelioma from these data, based on two regional registries.
The analysis of the past mortality data has been performed by an age-cohort model (with a maximum likelihood technique).
Predictions of deaths from mesothelioma over the next 50 years were based on four different assumptions on the risk of death from mesothelioma in future birth cohorts.
The predicted lifetime probability of dying from mesothelioma increases until the last birth cohort 1964-8 among men whereas it decreases strongly from the 1954-8 birth cohort among women. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Amiante, Modèle prévision, Exposition, Incidence, Pollution intérieur, Homme, Mésothéliome malin, Plèvre, Facteur risque, Comparaison interindividuelle, Sexe, Recherche rétrospective, Etude cohorte, Epidémiologie, France, Europe, Etude comparative, Angleterre, Grande Bretagne, Royaume Uni, Etats Unis, Amérique du Nord, Amérique, Appareil respiratoire pathologie, Plèvre pathologie, Tumeur maligne
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Asbestos, Forecast model, Exposure, Incidence, Indoor pollution, Human, Malignant mesothelioma, Pleura, Risk factor, Interindividual comparison, Sex, Retrospective searching, Cohort study, Epidemiology, France, Europe, Comparative study, England, Great Britain, United Kingdom, United States, North America, America, Respiratory disease, Pleural disease, Malignant tumor
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 99-0000844
Code Inist : 002B11A. Création : 31/05/1999.