RISK 97 International Conference. Amsterdam, NLD, 1997/10/21.
How is an (always) dynamic human population influenced by a (not always men most frequently) dynamic outside influence ?
This is the basic question the model of influence calculations seeks to answer.
And how can we apply the model for risk analyses ?
This is the second question to be answered in this short presentation.
The basic assumption behind the proposed solution is that the momentary effect of influence (El) is the product of the number of persons influenced by the influence source and the strength of influence that hit them.
The amount of influence (AI) affecting this population is the product of El and the duration of it.
In order to calculate El we define periods - here : parts of a day - when both the distribution of the population and the strength of the influence can be considered as unchanging.
Then we devide the whole observations field in so small parts that even the density of the population and the strength of influence can be considered as uniform within each part.
We calculate EI for all such parcels and translate the results into a map of the momentary influence effect occuring every moment during the period (EI).
The product of El and its duration (=the length of such a part of a day) gives the amount of influence (Al) for all part of the observation field, which can also be depicted in a map. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Evaluation, Risque, Homme, Population, Cartographie, Analyse risque, Milieu urbain, Densité population, Espace temps, Variation temporelle, Variation spatiale, Accident, Sinistre
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Evaluation, Risk, Human, Population, Cartography, Risk analysis, Urban environment, Population density, Space time, Time variation, Spatial variation, Accident, Disaster
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0530743
Code Inist : 002B30A02B. Création : 23/03/1999.