RISK 97 International Conference. Amsterdam, NLD, 1997/10/21.
Stochastic simulation of nitrate and aluminium contamination of groundwater from diffuse sources on the European scale was performed.
The results were used for two purposes in this paper : (1) to describe possible economical implications resulting from the uncertainties in contaminant modelling on the European scale and (2) to perform societal monetary decision analysis on alternatives to reduce contamination risks.
The risk was treated as a probabilistic cost for exceeding existing water quality standards.
A risk-cost minimization model was used for the decision analysis, considering all investment costs and risks of each alternative.
The analysis was performed using the Netherlands as a study area and the cost of failure was based on the value of groundwater as a drinking water resource.
The risk reduction alternatives included in the analysis were two emission reduction scenarios given by the IIASA RAINS model : the Current Reduction Plans (CRP) scenario and the Maximum Feasible Reductions (MFR) scenario.
The study indicates that the uncertainties result in prediction intervals for the economical outcomes of the two scenarios of 2.7 to 5.1 billion ECUs over a 15-year simulation period.
The study also indicates that the CRP scenario is the economically most advantageous alternative, given the economical assumptions made.
Mots-clés Pascal : Pollution eau, Eau souterraine, Nitrate, Aluminium, Europe, Analyse risque, Source diffuse
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Water pollution, Ground water, Nitrates, Aluminium, Europe, Risk analysis, Diffuse source
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0500995
Code Inist : 001D16A04B. Création : 19/02/1999.