Health risks, defined in terms of the probability that an individual will suffer a particular type of adverse health event within a given time period, can be understood as referencing either natural entities or complex patterns of belief which incorporate the observer's values and knowledge, the position adopted in the present paper.
The subjectivity inherent in judgements about adversity and time frames can be easily recognised, but social scientists have tended to accept uncritically the objectivity of probability.
Most commonly in health risk analysis, the term probability refers to rates established by induction. and so requires the definition of a numerator and denominator, Depending upon their specification, many probabilities may he reasonably postulated for the same event, and individuals may change their risks by deciding to seek or avoid information, These apparent absurdities can be understood if probability is conceptualised as the projection of expectation onto the external world.
Probabilities based on induction from observed frequencies provide glimpses of the future at the price of acceptance of the simplifying heuristic that statistics derived from aggregate groups can be validly attributed to individuals within them.
The paper illustrates four implications of this conceptualisation of probability with qualitative data from a variety of sources, particularly a study of genetic counselling for pregnant women in a U.K. hospital. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Risque, Santé, Probabilité, Analyse qualitative, Homme, Royaume Uni, Europe, Article synthèse, Epidémiologie
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Risk, Health, Probability, Qualitative analysis, Human, United Kingdom, Europe, Review, Epidemiology
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0476734
Code Inist : 002B30A01A2. Création : 19/02/1999.