This study assessed whether US and Canadian smoking reduction objectives for the year 2000 are attainable.
The United States seeks to cut smoking in its population to 15% ; the Canadian goal is 24%. Methods.
Smoking data were obtained for the United States (1974 - 1994) and Canada (1970-1995) for the overall populations and several age-sex subpopulations.
Analyses estimated trends, future prevalences. and the likelihood of goal attainment.
Structural time-series models were used because of their ability to fit a variety of trends.
The findings indicate that smoking has been declining steadily since the 1970s, by approximateiy 0.7 percentage points a year, in both countries.
Extrapolating these trends to the year 2000, the US prevalence will be 21% and the Canadian prevalence 24%. Conclusions, If the current trends continue, the Canadian goal seems attainable, but the US goal does not.
The US goal is reachable only for 65-to 80-year-olds. who already have low smoking prevalences.
It appears that both countries must increase their commitment to population-based tobacco control.
Mots-clés Pascal : Tabagisme, Sevrage toxique, Epidémiologie, Prévalence, Evolution, Perspective, Homme, Etats Unis, Amérique du Nord, Amérique, Canada
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Tobacco smoking, Poison withdrawal, Epidemiology, Prevalence, Evolution, Perspective, Human, United States, North America, America, Canada
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0440967
Code Inist : 002B18C05C. Création : 25/01/1999.