A method is presented to approximate the long-term stochastic dynamics of an epidemic modelled by state variables denoting the various classes of the population such as in SIR and SEIR model.
The modelling includes epidemics in populations at different locations with migration between these populations.
A logistic stochastic process for the total infcctious population is formulated ; it fits the long-term stochastic behaviour of the total infectious population in the full model.
A good approximation is obtained if only the dynamics near the equilibria is fit. 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.
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Mots-clés Pascal : Epidémie, Approximation, Long terme, Régime dynamique, Modélisation, Analyse stochastique, Infection, Population, Migration, Etat équilibre
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Epidemic, Approximation, Long term, Dynamic conditions, Modeling, Stochastic analysis, Infection, Population, Migration, Equilibrium state
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Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0419161
Code Inist : 002B30A01A1. Création : 25/01/1999.