To develop a method based on a space-time criterion for early detection of epidemics of influenza-like-illness in France.
Since 1984, the French Communicable Diseases computer Network (FCDN) routinely detects epidemics of influenza-like-illness when the national incidence rate is, for 2 consecutive weeks, above a threshold computed by a periodic regression model.
It appears that some areas reported early increases in incidence several weeks before the national epidemic.
An optimised space-time criterion allows an early detection of the epidemic periods.
Applying this space-time criterion to the last 11 epidemics (from 1986). the sensitivity was 0.82 and the specificity was 0.99.
This simple procedure can be used as an additional tool for early detection of an epidemic taking into account the distribution of new cases in space and time.
Mots-clés Pascal : Grippe, Virose, Infection, Surveillance sanitaire, Diagnostic, Précoce, Corrélation spatiotemporelle, Epidémiologie, Incidence, Méthodologie, Evaluation, Homme, France, Europe
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Influenza, Viral disease, Infection, Sanitary surveillance, Diagnosis, Early, Space time correlation, Epidemiology, Incidence, Methodology, Evaluation, Human, France, Europe
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0414843
Code Inist : 002B30A01A1. Création : 25/01/1999.