Point estimates of physical fitness give important information on the risk of death in healthy people, but there is little information available on effects of sequential changes in physical fitness on mortality.
We studied this latter aspect in healthy middle-aged men over a total follow-up period of 22 years.
Methods 2014 healthy men aged 40-60 years had a bicycle exercise test and clinical examination, and completed a questionnaire in 1972-75 (survey 1) This was repeated for 1756 (91%) of 1932 men still alive by Dec 31,1982 (survey 2) The exercise scores were adjusted for age.
The change in exercise scores between surveys was divided into quartiles (Q1=least, fit Q4=fittest).
An adjusted Cox's proportional hazards model was used to study the association between changes...
Findings By Dec 31,1994,238 (17%) of the 1428 men had died, 120 from cardiovascular causes.
There were 37 deaths in the Q4 group (19 cardiovascular) ; their relative risk of death were 0.45 (95% Cl 0.29-0.69) for any cause and 0.47 (0.26-0.86) for cardiovascular causes.
There was a graded, inverse relation between changes in physical fitness and mortality irrespective of physical status at survey 1. Interpretation : Change in physical fitness in healthy middle-aged men is a strong predictor of mortality.
Even small improvements in physical fitness are associated with a significantly lowered risk of death.
If confirmed, these findings should be used to influence public health policy.
Mots-clés Pascal : Epidémiologie, Exercice physique, Mortalité, Appareil circulatoire, Facteur risque
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Epidemiology, Physical exercise, Mortality, Circulatory system, Risk factor
Notice produite par :
ENSP - Ecole nationale de la santé publique (devenue EHESP)
Cote : 98/09 V
Code Inist : 002B30A03B. Création : 25/01/1999.