In a one-sex preferred mixing model, reductions in the rate of partner change by those with low sexual activity increase the average probability of HIV infection in the remaining pool of available partners.
This increases prevalence among people with high activity, and since high activity people disproportionately influence the spread of HIV, may increase long-run prevalence in the population as a whole.
Calculations using the model and survey data on sexual activity indicate that in low prevalence populations, many people have low enough activity that reductions in their activity might increase the endemic steady-state prevalence.
If these results prove robust in more realistic models, they would support the case for targeting public health messages urging reduced sexual activity to high activity people.
Mots-clés Pascal : SIDA, Virose, Infection, Virus immunodéficience humaine, Lentivirus, Retroviridae, Virus, Modélisation, Comportement sexuel, Ciblage, Information public, Régime permanent, Etude comparative, Partenaire sexuel, Homme, Immunopathologie, Immunodéficit
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : AIDS, Viral disease, Infection, Human immunodeficiency virus, Lentivirus, Retroviridae, Virus, Modeling, Sexual behavior, Targeting, Public information, Steady state, Comparative study, Sex partner, Human, Immunopathology, Immune deficiency
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0335833
Code Inist : 002B05C02D. Création : 27/11/1998.