Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is a methodology used to organize and analyze scientific information to estimate the probability and severity of an adverse event.
Applied to microbial food safety, the methodology can also help to identify those stages in the manufacture, distribution, handling, and consumption of foods that contribute to an increased risk of foodborne illness, and help focus resources and efforts to most effectively reduce the risk of foodborne pathogens.
The term Process Risk Model (PRM) is introduced in this paper to describe the integration and application of QRA methodology with scenario analysis and predictive microbiology to provide an objective assessment of the hygienic characteristics of a manufacturing process.
The methodology was applied to model the human health risk associated with Escherichia coli O157 : H7 in ground beef hamburgers.
The PRM incorporated two mathematical submodels ; the first was intended to described the behaviour of the pathogen from the production of the food through processing, handling, and consumption to predict human exposure.
The exposure estimate was then used as input to a dose-response model to estimate the health risk associated with consuming food from the process.
Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the effect of the uncertainty and variability in the model parameters on the predicted human health risk.
The model predicted a probability of Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome of 3. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Pathogène, Modèle mathématique, Méthode Monte Carlo, Simulation, Prédiction, Viande boeuf, Viande hachée, Evaluation, Risque, Contamination biologique, Escherichia coli, Enterobacteriaceae, Bactérie, Produit carné, Aliment, Fabrication, Modèle probabiliste, Hygiène, Infection, Homme
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Pathogenic, Mathematical model, Monte Carlo method, Simulation, Prediction, Beef, Minced meat, Evaluation, Risk, Biological contamination, Escherichia coli, Enterobacteriaceae, Bacteria, Meat product, Food, Manufacturing, Probabilistic model, Hygiene, Infection, Human
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0295507
Code Inist : 002A35B05. Création : 27/11/1998.