To assess the impact of the HIV epidemic on the demographic development of the Thai population.
A deterministic mathematical model was used to predict simultaneously epidemiological and demographic processes.
Partial differential equations express the relationships between biological, behavioural and demographic variables.
The model allows the evaluation of different sexual mixing patterns, variable transmission probabilities and incubation times.
Validity analysis was performed by generating antecedent HIV prevalence patterns among military recruits and pregnant women.
On the national level in Thailand we predict that the cumulative number of people in Thailand with HIV infection will exceed 1 million by 1999 ; the number of deaths from AIDS will be 550 000 by the year 2000 but will not reach 1 million until after the year 2014.
Without the HIV epidemic the population growth rate was estimated at 1.3% per annum until 1995, after which a decline to 0.9% by 2005 is predicted.
The HIV epidemic started to affect the population growth rate by 0.026% per year in 1991, and the difference is predicted to rise to about 0.12% per year during the period 1995-2000, to decline to 0.06% in 2005 and then to disappear. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : SIDA, Virose, Infection, Séropositivité, Virus immunodéficience humaine, Lentivirus, Retroviridae, Virus, Epidémie, Thaïlande, Asie, Homme, Modèle mathématique, Prédiction, Démographie, Immunopathologie, Immunodéficit
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : AIDS, Viral disease, Infection, Seropositivity, Human immunodeficiency virus, Lentivirus, Retroviridae, Virus, Epidemic, Thailand, Asia, Human, Mathematical model, Prediction, Demography, Immunopathology, Immune deficiency
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0277201
Code Inist : 002B05C02D. Création : 27/11/1998.