Background The present study describes the use of time series analysis in the evaluation of the incidence of nosocomial infection.
The main hypothesis analysed was that monthly occurrence of nosocomial infection in a hospital may be related to work-related factors such as the control and training of personnel imposed by a surveillance system, strikes supported by medical personnel and movement of personnel.
Time series analysis was used to quantify, model and statistically evaluate these interventions.
Methods The data employed (March 1982-December 1990) were supplied by the nosocomial infection surveillance system of a primary-care general hospital.
The monthly time series incidence of nosocomial infections (measured as percentage cumulative incidence) was analysed by curve fitting, autoregressive, integrated and moving average (ARIMA) modelling (Box-Jenkins) and intervention and dynamic regression analysis.
Results The imposed control and training of personnel by the surveillance system was associated with a 3.63% decrease in the accumulated monthly incidence of nosocomial infection from 7.82% to a baseline level of 4.19%. There was a strong indication that an increase of infection incidence of 4.34% corresponded to a medical strike.
This increase was maintained over the following months raising the baseline level to 4.84%. An increase of 0.18% was associated with each new nursing contract. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Infection nosocomiale, Surveillance sanitaire, Méthode mesure, Modèle mathématique, Analyse statistique, Epidémiologie, Incidence, Méthodologie, Homme, Assurance qualité, Milieu hospitalier, Espagne, Europe
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Nosocomial infection, Sanitary surveillance, Measurement method, Mathematical model, Statistical analysis, Epidemiology, Incidence, Methodology, Human, Quality assurance, Hospital environment, Spain, Europe
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0251618
Code Inist : 002B30A01A1. Création : 11/09/1998.