A statistical model to identify the contaminated lots implicated in iatrogenic transmission of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease among french human growth hormone recipients.
From 1970 to 1988, thousands of children have been treated with human growth hormone (hGH) to supply pituitary gland deficiency.
In France, 51 of the 968 children treated by hGH lots produced between January 1984 and March 1985 had developed Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) by the end of 1996.
The authors'objective was to investigate which of the 13 hGH lots produced during this period might be implicated in the iatrogenic transmission of CJD.
In this paper, the authors describe a model that was developed to compute the probability for each lot of being contaminated.
The validity of the model was assessed by a simulation study that showed a good agreement between the estimated and the simulated number of contaminated lots.
The model suggested that about half of the lots distributed during this period might have been contaminated by the infectious agent that causes CJD.
The risk of iatrogenic CJD for patients exposed to contaminated hGH lots was estimated to be 0.06 (95% confidence interval 0.05-0.07).
Mots-clés Pascal : Encéphalopathie spongiforme Creutzfeldt Jakob, Infection, Contamination, Traitement substance croissance, STH, Complication, Iatrogène, Identification, Médicament, Risque, Etude statistique, Evaluation performance, Homme, Prion, Système nerveux pathologie, Système nerveux central pathologie, Encéphale pathologie, Maladie dégénérative, Biomathématique
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Creutzfeldt Jakob disease, Infection, Contamination, Growth regulator treatment, STH, Complication, Iatrogenic, Identification, Drug, Risk, Statistical study, Performance evaluation, Human, Prion, Nervous system diseases, Central nervous system disease, Cerebral disorder, Degenerative disease, Biomathematics
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0205217
Code Inist : 002B17G. Création : 11/09/1998.