Study objectives-To determine whether British lung cancer (LC) trends are adequately explained by cigarette smoking trends, and whether modelling using aggregated smoking prevalence estimates can validly replace modelling using individual smoking histories.
Methods-Observed LC trends for 1955-1985 for both sexes and three age groups were compared with multistage model predictions using smoking history data from two surveys (HALS, AHIP).
The modelling used the individual smoking data directly or aggregated prevalence estimates.
It allowed for variation in age of starting and stopping smoking, amount smoked, tar levels, and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure.
Observed male LC rates fell faster than predicted by a model (with the first and penultimate stages assumed affected by smoking) that allowed for variation in amount smoked and in tar level (with some provision for « compensation »), and was based on aggregated smoking data from HALS.
The discrepancy equated to an annual change unexplained by smoking of - 2.4%, - 2.8%, and - 1.9% for ages 35-44,45-54, and 55-64.
The annual unexplained changes were less in women, and reversed at age 55-64 ; - 1.7%, - 0.8%, and+0.8% for the three ages.
They were similar using individual smoking histories (-2.6%, - 1.8%, and - 1.6% ; women, - 0.9%, - 0.5%, and+0.2%). (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Tumeur maligne, Bronchopulmonaire, Tabagisme, Age, Sexe, Facteur risque, Epidémiologie, Evolution, Tendance, Prévalence, Homme, Grande Bretagne, Royaume Uni, Europe, Analyse statistique, Toxicité, Appareil respiratoire pathologie, Poumon pathologie, Bronche pathologie
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Malignant tumor, Bronchopulmonary, Tobacco smoking, Age, Sex, Risk factor, Epidemiology, Evolution, Trend, Prevalence, Human, Great Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Statistical analysis, Toxicity, Respiratory disease, Lung disease, Bronchus disease
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0137483
Code Inist : 002B11A. Création : 21/07/1998.