Study objective-To identify the time courses and magnitude of ischaemic heart (IHD), respiratory (RES), and all cause mortality associated with common 20-30 day patterns of cold weather in order to assess links between cold exposure and mortality.
Design-Daily temperatures and daily mortality on successive days before and after a reference day were regressed on the temperature of the reference day using high pass filtered data in which changes with a cycle length<80 days were unaffected (<2%), but slower cyclical changes and trends were partly or completely suppressed.
This provided the short term patterns of both temperature and mortality associated with a one day displacement of temperature.
The results were compared with simple regressions of unfiltered mortality on temperature at successive delays.
Study population and setting-Population of south east England, including London, over 50 years of age from 1976-92.
Main results-Colder than average days in the linear range 15 to 0°C were associated with a « run up » of cold weather for 10-15 days beforehand and a « run down » for 10-15 days afterwards.
The increases in deaths were maximal at 3 days after the peak in cold for IHD, at 12 days for RES, and at 3 days for all cause mortality.
The increases lasted approximately 40 days after the peak in cold.
RES deaths were significantly delayed compared with IHD deaths.
Excess deaths per million associated with these short term temperature displacements were 7.3 for IHD, 5. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Angleterre, Grande Bretagne, Royaume Uni, Europe, Temps météorologique, Froid, Epidémiologie, Homme, Cardiopathie coronaire, Appareil respiratoire pathologie, Mortalité, Hiver, Variation saisonnière, Température atmosphérique, Climat froid, Série temporelle, Appareil circulatoire pathologie
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : England, Great Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Weather, Cold, Epidemiology, Human, Coronary heart disease, Respiratory disease, Mortality, Winter, Seasonal variation, Atmospheric temperature, Cold climate, Time series, Cardiovascular disease
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0058726
Code Inist : 002B12A03. Création : 14/05/1998.