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  1. Cycles of Malaria associated with El Nino in Venezuela.

    Article - En anglais

    Context. - Malaria has been increasing globally, and epidemics tend to occur when weather conditions favor this vector-borne disease.

    Long-term meteorologic forecasting using El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may assist in anticipating epidemics and targeting scarce resources.

    Objective

    - To determine whether malaria epidemics in Venezuela are related to ENSO and rainfall and to determine whether such a relationship could be used to predict outbreaks.

    Design

    - Retrospective analysis of national malaria morbidity (1975-1995) and mortality (1910-1935) data in the coastal zone and interior of Venezuela in relation to El Nino events and rainfall.

    Main Outcome Measure

    - Correlation between malaria mortality and morbidity and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, a parameter of ENSO.

    Results

    - Malaria mortality and morbidity have increased by an average of 36.5% (95% confidence interval, 3.7% - 69.3% ; P=004) in years following recognized El Nino events.

    A moderate correlation was found between Pacific tropical SST during a Nino event and malaria 1 year later (r=0.50, P<. 001).

    Malaria mortality is more strongly related to drought in the year preceding outbreaks than to rainfall during epidemic years.

    Conclusions

    - Historic and recent data from Venezuela demonstrate that malaria increases by an average of about one third in the year following a Nino event ; change in malaria risk can be predicted from Pacific SSTs in the previous year. (...)

    Mots-clés Pascal : Paludisme, Protozoose, Parasitose, Infection, Plasmodium, Apicomplexa, Protozoa, Cycle développement, Endémie, Relation, Condition climatique, Courant marin, Réchauffement, Etude statistique, Homme, Venezuela, Amérique du Sud, Amérique, Hémopathie

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Malaria, Protozoal disease, Parasitosis, Infection, Plasmodium, Apicomplexa, Protozoa, Life cycle, Endemy, Relation, Climatic condition, Sea current, Warming, Statistical study, Human, Venezuela, South America, America, Hemopathy

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 98-0041593

    Code Inist : 002B05E02B4. Création : 17/04/1998.