Context. - Malaria has been increasing globally, and epidemics tend to occur when weather conditions favor this vector-borne disease.
Long-term meteorologic forecasting using El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may assist in anticipating epidemics and targeting scarce resources.
- To determine whether malaria epidemics in Venezuela are related to ENSO and rainfall and to determine whether such a relationship could be used to predict outbreaks.
- Retrospective analysis of national malaria morbidity (1975-1995) and mortality (1910-1935) data in the coastal zone and interior of Venezuela in relation to El Nino events and rainfall.
- Correlation between malaria mortality and morbidity and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, a parameter of ENSO.
- Malaria mortality and morbidity have increased by an average of 36.5% (95% confidence interval, 3.7% - 69.3% ; P=004) in years following recognized El Nino events.
A moderate correlation was found between Pacific tropical SST during a Nino event and malaria 1 year later (r=0.50, P<. 001).
Malaria mortality is more strongly related to drought in the year preceding outbreaks than to rainfall during epidemic years.
- Historic and recent data from Venezuela demonstrate that malaria increases by an average of about one third in the year following a Nino event ; change in malaria risk can be predicted from Pacific SSTs in the previous year. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Paludisme, Protozoose, Parasitose, Infection, Plasmodium, Apicomplexa, Protozoa, Cycle développement, Endémie, Relation, Condition climatique, Courant marin, Réchauffement, Etude statistique, Homme, Venezuela, Amérique du Sud, Amérique, Hémopathie
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Malaria, Protozoal disease, Parasitosis, Infection, Plasmodium, Apicomplexa, Protozoa, Life cycle, Endemy, Relation, Climatic condition, Sea current, Warming, Statistical study, Human, Venezuela, South America, America, Hemopathy
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0041593
Code Inist : 002B05E02B4. Création : 17/04/1998.