International Workshop on Real-time Computing of the Environmental Consequences of an Accident Release from a Nuclear Installation. Aronsborg (SWE), 1996/10/07.
This paper considers conceptual mathematical issues related to comparing the estimation of the effectiveness of countermeasures to be applied at different stages of a radiation incident.
The countermeasures are described by a vector of attributes whose coordinates are random values.
They are compared by integration of a combined distribution function, the core being a value function (VF).
This function is reconstructed at a preliminary stage of registering expert preferences which are relative attribute weights specified for some points.
At the same stage the collective compatibility of preferences and their extension to whole space of possible attributes is tested.
The result of comparison of strategies is not just an evaluation'better-worse'but also saying'to what extent'and uncertainty of this estimate.
Two kinds of estimate can be made : dimensionless estimates allowing for a contour surface of VF, and those having the dimension of any attribute providing for the values of VF.
Mots-clés Pascal : Méthode mathématique, Système temps réel, Système aide décision, Etude comparative, Estimation, Procédure intervention, Efficacité, Analyse risque, Radioprotection, Accident nucléaire
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Mathematical method, Real time system, Decision support system, Comparative study, Estimation, Intervention procedure, Efficiency, Risk analysis, Radioprotection
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Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0025067
Code Inist : 002B30A01C. Création : 17/04/1998.