Global assessment of El Nino's disaster burden.
Background Natural disasters have profound effects on health and require medical intervention as part of relief operations.
The world's populations are becoming increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events, which are responsible for most natural disasters.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent global climate system associated with year-to-year weather variability and extreme events.
We have estimated the burden on human health of natural disasters associated with ENSO.
Methods We used time-series regression analysis of the relation between El Nino years and the annual rates of persons affected by natural disasters per 1000 population during 1964-93, globally and also by region and disaster type.
Correlations between sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies (index of ENSO) and the rates of persons affected by natural disasters per 1000 population were determined globally, by region and by disaster type.
Findings The rate of persons affected by natural disasters worldwide is strongly associated with ENSO ; rates are greater during the first El Nino year (p=0.05) and the following year (p=0.01) than in the pre-Nino year.
The correlation between rates of persons affected by natural disasters and SST anomalies in the Eastern Pacific (a key ENSO indicator) is highest in the last quarter of the previous year (r=0.53, p<0.01).
These associations are strongest in South Asia, the region where more than 50% of all disaster victims live. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Sinistre, Naturel, Phénomène météorologique, Aspect humain, Coût, Océan Pacifique, Article synthèse, Homme, Phénomène El Nino
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Disaster, Natural, Meteorological phenomenon, Human aspect, Costs, Pacific Ocean, Review, Human
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 98-0007420
Code Inist : 002B30A01A2. Création : 17/04/1998.