In this paper, assumptions regarding future land use as a key uncertainty is considered and its impact on risk analysis for contaminated sites is assessed.
Risks are assessed for two land use scenarios (current-use industrial and future-use residential) using probabilistic models that incorporate uncertainty and variability in the exposure parameters.
Residual risks are calculated for both industrial and residential cleanup standards.
A Superfund site in northern California is considered.
In general, for the unremediated case, the future-use residential scenarios produce larger risks (1 to 3 orders of magnitude) than current- (continued) use industrial scenarios.
For the Superfund site studied, the residual risks calculated for the remedy selected was not sufficiently protective of future-use residents in that it did not meet U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk goals, but was protective of current-use workers, even though the cleanup criteria were based on residential use.
Alternative risk management practices, such as deed restrictions, can be used in such cases.
Mots-clés Pascal : Californie, Etats Unis, Amérique du Nord, Amérique, Pollution sol, Décontamination, Occupation sol, Perspective, Toxicité, Carcinogène, Analyse risque, Modèle probabiliste, Méthode Monte Carlo
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : California, United States, North America, America, Soil pollution, Decontamination, Land use, Perspective, Toxicity, Carcinogen, Risk analysis, Probabilistic model, Monte Carlo method
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 97-0503589
Code Inist : 001D16D05. Création : 13/02/1998.