The vaccination program for pertussis (whooping cough) in the United States consists of giving multiple doses of pertussis vaccine to young children.
A demographic model with a steady-state age distribution is used as a basis for building an epidemiologic model for the transmission of pertussis.
This age-structured model includes vaccination of infants and children for pertussis with waning of both infection-acquired and vaccine-induced immunity.
Computer simulations of the mathematical model between 1940 and 2040 show the changes that took place during the implementation phase of the U.S. program and predict only minor future changes in the age distribution and incidence of pertussis if the vaccination program is maintained at the 1995 level.
The sensitivities of these results to changes in demographic and epidemiologic parameters, vaccine efficacy, duration of protection, and levels of vaccination coverage are investigated.
Mots-clés Pascal : Coqueluche, Bactériose, Infection, Enfant, Homme, Vaccination, Modèle mathématique, Etats Unis, Amérique du Nord, Amérique, Evolution démographique, Age, Epidémiologie, Contamination, Immunisation, Simulation ordinateur, Efficacité, Appareil respiratoire pathologie
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Whooping cough, Bacteriosis, Infection, Child, Human, Vaccination, Mathematical model, United States, North America, America, Demographic evolution, Age, Epidemiology, Contamination, Immunization, Computer simulation, Efficiency, Respiratory disease
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 97-0498823
Code Inist : 002B05B02E. Création : 13/02/1998.