Aim of this study was to assess the cumulative incidence of HIV-infection, AIDS and pre-AIDS death in the population of injecting drug users (IDU) in Amsterdam.
By assuming equivalence, between a cohort of IDU and the IDU population, of the ratios of incidences of AIDS and pre-AIDS death to the number of HIV positive persons giving rise to these incidences, the numbers of HIV positive persons and pre-AIDS deaths in the population could be calculated, given that other parameters were known.
Cohort study data on HIV prevalence and incidences of HIV infection, AIDS, and pre-AIDS death, were combined with national AIDS surveillance data.
As of 1 October 1994, the estimated cumulative number of HIV positive IDU in Amsterdam was approximately 1280, far higher than a recent back-calculation estimate.
Of the 1280,204 HIV positive IDU had been diagnosed with AIDS, while about 270 had died pre-AIDS.
The HIV prevalence of IDU residing in Amsterdam that were still alive and free of AIDS was hence estimated at around 800.
Since the incidence of pre-AIDS death and AIDS exceeded the number of seroconversions during the past four years, the HIV epidemic among IDU in Amsterdam appears to be dwindling.
A lower bound of the number of HIV positive IDU being alive, AIDS-free and living elsewhere in the Netherlands was roughly estimated at 600.
Because of untimely deaths, only a limited number of HIV positive IDU can be expected to be diagnosed with AIDS in the future. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : SIDA, Virose, Infection, Epidémiologie, Toxicomanie, Voie intraveineuse, Pays Bas, Europe, Homme, Mortalité, Morbidité, Incidence, Prévalence, Immunopathologie, Immunodéficit
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : AIDS, Viral disease, Infection, Epidemiology, Drug addiction, Intravenous administration, Netherlands, Europe, Human, Mortality, Morbidity, Incidence, Prevalence, Immunopathology, Immune deficiency
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 97-0420931
Code Inist : 002B06D01. Création : 19/12/1997.