Population-based data on major caronary events (MCE) are generally lacking for large area, such as at the nationwide level.
While mortality data are currently and exhaustively collected in all developed countries and in most developing countries, incidence and prevalence are often available only for certain sub-groups the population under study.
We propose a mathematical method to estimate incidence and prevalence using mortality and survival data as input, and to forecast MCE occurrence using an age, period, and cohort approach.
An application of rhe method is given to reconstruct incidence and prevalence of MCE in Italy from 1970 to 1990 and to project trends up to rhe year 2000.
MCE incidence has been decreasing since 1974, four years before the observed mortality decline.
Conversely, prevalence continues to increase up to the middle of the 1980s and declines thereafter.
Mots-clés Pascal : Ischémie, Myocarde, Epidémiologie, Incidence, Prévalence, Mortalité, Modèle prévision, Modèle mathématique, Italie, Europe, Tendance, Homme, 2000, Appareil circulatoire pathologie, Vaisseau sanguin pathologie, Cardiopathie coronaire, Myocarde pathologie
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Ischemia, Myocardium, Epidemiology, Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality, Forecast model, Mathematical model, Italy, Europe, Trend, Human, 2000, Cardiovascular disease, Vascular disease, Coronary heart disease, Myocardial disease
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 97-0366004
Code Inist : 002B12A03. Création : 12/09/1997.