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  1. Die zukünftige Bevölkerungsentwicklung im Raum Augsburg : Modellrechnungen mit dem DEPOP-Modell.

    Article - En allemand

    Traduction en anglais : Estimated future population development in the Augsburg region : Modell calculations based on the DEPOP model.

    Regional population forecasts are on average even more uncertain than nationwide projections, due to the greater importance of migration and the unstable smaller absolute numbers.

    Other than national projections, local or regional calculations do normally have an explicit goal.

    In this paper, a projection of the population and age structure in the region ofAugsburg is used to demonstrate some specific aspects of local population projections used for public health purposes.

    If institutions of childhood ages are to be projected the results are primarily determined by the assumptions on migration.

    If questions of old age are to be answered, the main factor of influence is the development in mortality.

    Depending on the specific aim of a local population projection, the principal insecurity about the future should be integrated by calculating confidence bands for those demographic parameters, that are most important for the specific question.

    Mots-clés Pascal : Modèle prévision, Structure population, Dynamique population, Migration population, Démographie, Homme, Echelon régional, Allemagne, Europe

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Forecast model, Population structure, Population dynamics, Population migration, Demography, Human, Regional scope, Germany, Europe

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 97-0309245

    Code Inist : 002B30A01A2. Création : 15/07/1997.