Physicians'survival predictions for patients with acute congestive heart failure.
Current guidelines suggest that patients with low likelihoods of survival may be excluded from intensive care.
Patients with new or exacerbated congestive heart failure are frequently but not inevitably admitted to critical care units.
To assess how well physicians could predict the probability of survival for acutely ill patients with congestive heart failure, and in particular how well they could identify patients with small chances of survival.
This was a prospective cohort study done in the emergency departments of university hospital, a Veterans Affairs medical center, and a community hospital.
The study population was consecutive adults for whom new or exacerbated congestive heart failure, diagnosed clinically, was a major reason for the emergency department visit.
Physicians caring for the study patients in the emergency departments recorded their judgments of the numeric probability that each patient would survive for 90 days and for 1 year.
The patients'vital status at 90 days and 1 year was ascertained by multiple means, including interview, chart review, and review of hospital and state databases.
By calibration curve analysis, the physicians underestimated survival probability at both 90 days and 1 year, particularly for patients theyjudged to have the lowest probabilities of survival.
Their predictions had modest discriminating ability (receiver operating characteristic curve areas, 0.66 [SE=0. (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Insuffisance cardiaque, Aigu, Indice gravité, Unité soin intensif, Hospitalisation, Probabilité survie, Critère sélection, Facteur prédictif, Adulte, Homme, Epidémiologie, Médecin, Etude longitudinale, Appareil circulatoire pathologie, Cardiopathie
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Heart failure, Acute, Severity score, Intensive care unit, Hospitalization, Survival probability, Selection criterion, Predictive factor, Adult, Human, Epidemiology, Physician, Follow up study, Cardiovascular disease, Heart disease
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 97-0289557
Code Inist : 002B27B01. Création : 15/07/1997.