To develop a logistic regression model that predicts the risk of death for children less than 16 years of age in intensive care, using information collected at the time of admission to the unit.
Three prospective cohort studies, from 1988 to 1995, were used to determine the variables for the final model.
A fourth cohort study, from 1994 to 1996, collected information from consecutive admissions to all seven dedicated paediatric intensive care units in Australia and one in Britain.
2904 patients were included in the first three parts of the study, which identified ten variables for further evaluation. 5695 children were in the fourth part of the study (including 1412 from the third part) ; a model that used eight variables was developed on data from four of the units and tested on data from the other four units.
The model fitted the test data well (deciles of risk goodness-of-fit test p=0.40) and discriminated well between death and survival (area under the receiver operating characteristic plot 0.90).
The final PIM model used the data from all 5695 children and also fitted well (p=0.37) and discriminated well (area 0.90). (...)
Mots-clés Pascal : Unité soin intensif, Pédiatrie, Indice gravité, Mortalité, Modèle mathématique, Régression logistique, Pronostic, Evaluation performance, Echelle évaluation, Enfant, Homme, Epidémiologie, Soin intensif
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Intensive care unit, Pediatrics, Severity score, Mortality, Mathematical model, Logistic regression, Prognosis, Performance evaluation, Evaluation scale, Child, Human, Epidemiology, Intensive care
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 97-0204515
Code Inist : 002B30A01A2. Création : 21/05/1997.