A critical review of the Benefits Analysis that accompanies EPA's Great Lakes Water Quality Initiative (GLI) shows that the benefits have been significantly overestimated.
Benefits accrue from the estimated reduction in human cancer risk as a result of the decrease in point source loading due to the initiative.
EPA estimated cancer reduction for fish consumers as the product of the numbers of consumers, fish consumption rate, chemical concentrations in fish, percent point source contribution to total loading, expected decrease in loading with GLI, and EPA cancer slope factor.
For these components EPA used values that were higher than likely and that overestimated final benefits.
EPA estimated GLI benefits of about $17,000 for each $1 million invested, but using more likely values produced estimated benefits of about $5 for each $1 million invested.
Over the long term, one cancer should be averted sometime between now and the year 8086 after an expenditure of about $1.3 trillion.
Mots-clés Pascal : Grands Lacs Amérique, Amérique du Nord, Amérique, Pollution eau, Qualité eau, Contamination, Poisson comestible, Homme, Carcinogène, Analyse avantage coût, Tumeur maligne, Stratégie, Protection environnement, Organisme réglementation, Santé et environnement, Réduction
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Great Lakes of America, North America, America, Water pollution, Water quality, Contamination, Edible fish, Human, Carcinogen, Cost benefit analysis, Malignant tumor, Strategy, Environmental protection, Regulatory institution, Health and environment, Reduction
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 97-0160005
Code Inist : 002B03L03. Création : 21/05/1997.