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  1. Predictive model to identify trauma patients with blood alcohol concentrations = 50 mg/dl.

    Article, Communication - En anglais

    American Society of Addition Medicine. Annual Medical Scientific Conference. Chicago, Illinois (USA), 1995/04/27.


    To develop a simple model for identification of trauma patients who are likely to have a blood alcohol concentration =50 mg/dL (BAC+50).


    Demographic, clinical, and BAC data were collected from the clinical trauma registry and toxicology data base at a Level I trauma center.

    Logistic regression was used to analyze data from 11,206 patients to develop a predictive model, which was validated using a subsequent cohort of 3,523 patients.


    In the model development cohort, alcohol was detected in the blood of 3,180 BAC-tested patients (28.7%), of whom 91.2% had a BAC+50 status.

    Preliminary analysis revealed associations between a BAC+50 status and sex, age, race, injury type (intentional vs. unintentional), and time of injury (night vs. day and weekend vs. weekday).

    A predictive model using four attributes (sex and injury type) identified patients at low, medium, and high risk for being BAC+50.

    The model was validated using the second group of patients.


    Injured patients with a high probability of being alcohol positive can be identified using a simple scoring system based on readily available demographic and clinical information.

    Mots-clés Pascal : Modèle, Valeur prédictive, Taux concentration, Alcoolémie, Traumatisme, Facteur risque, Epidémiologie, Homme, Etude méthode, Validité

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Models, Predictive value, Concentration factor, Alcoholemia, Trauma, Risk factor, Epidemiology, Human, Method study, Validity

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 97-0147987

    Code Inist : 002B16N. Création : 21/05/1997.