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  1. Evaluation of tuberculosis control policies using computer simulation.

    Article - En anglais

    Objective

    - To develop more effective methods to assess tuberculosis (TB) control strategies so we can meet national goals for the elimination of TB in the United States.

    Design

    - Using a semi-Markov model that divided the US population into 3 age groups and 18 clinical states based on disease status and risk for TB and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, we measured the effects of 5 changes in TB policy, introduced singly and in combination : (1) increased coverage and (2) improved efficacy of preventive therapy, (3) increased coverage and (4) improved efficacy of treatment, and (5) introduction of BCG vaccination.

    Results

    - A BCG vaccination program that reached 10% of eligible children and 1% of eligible adults each year would produce a 17% reduction in cases and an 11% decline in deaths over 10 years.

    Preventive therapy programs among the general population would have little effect on the number of TB cases, but a program targeting HIV-infected patients would reduce HIV-associated TB cases and deaths 14% to 20%. A 10% improvement in the coverage and efficacy of both preventive therapy and treatment, coupled with the BCG vaccination program, would lead to a 47% decline in TB cases and a 50% decline in TB deaths relative to baseline over 10 years.

    Conclusions

    - Improvements in treatment coverage or effectiveness alone are unlikely to reach established national goals for the elimination of TB. (...)

    Mots-clés Pascal : Tuberculose, Mycobactériose, Bactériose, Infection, Dépistage, Contrôle, Simulation ordinateur, Stratégie recherche, Traitement, Prévention, Diagnostic différentiel, BCG, Vaccination, Population, Homme, Etats Unis, Amérique du Nord, Amérique, Appareil respiratoire pathologie, Organisation santé, Politique sanitaire

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Tuberculosis, Mycobacterial infection, Bacteriosis, Infection, Medical screening, Check, Computer simulation, Search strategy, Treatment, Prevention, Differential diagnostic, BCG, Vaccination, Population, Human, United States, North America, America, Respiratory disease, Public health organization, Health policy

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 97-0066047

    Code Inist : 002B30A03C. Création : 21/05/1997.