In 1983, Pike et al. developed a mathematical model to quantify the effects of reproductive risk factors on the incidence of breast cancer.
In 1994, we modified that model to correct some deficiencies in the original model, including a lack of terms for spacing of births and an inability to easily accommodate births after age 40 years.
Our extended Pike model, while improving on the original, still had serious disadvantages, such as difficulty in translating model parameters into relative risks (RRs) and an incomplete fit to data that slightly overestimated incidence for premenopausal women with an early age at first birth and that underestimated incidence for postmenopausal women with a late age at first birth.
We undertook both the development of a new mathematical model to quantify the effects of reproductive risk factors on breast cancer incidence and validation of the model.
A new log-incidence model of breast cancer incidence was developed using nonlinear regression methods, and a study population consisting of 89 132 women in the Nurses'Health Study from which a total of 2249 incident cases of breast cancer were identified.
Subjects were followed from the return of the 1976 Nurses'Health Study questionnaire until June 1,1990, or until the last questionnaire was returned, until the development of any cancer, or until death, yielding 1 148 593 person-years of follow-up.
The log-incidence models were fitted using iterat...
Mots-clés Pascal : Tumeur maligne, Glande mammaire, Incidence, Facteur risque, Reproduction, Parité, Age, Modèle mathématique, Etats Unis, Amérique du Nord, Amérique, Homme, Glande mammaire pathologie, Génie biomédical
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Malignant tumor, Mammary gland, Incidence, Risk factor, Reproduction, Parity, Age, Mathematical model, United States, North America, America, Human, Mammary gland diseases, Biomedical engineering
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Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 96-0262034
Code Inist : 002B20E02. Création : 199608.