The conventional approach to reserve capacity assessment in small isolated electric power generating systems is to use a deterministic procedure which recognises the possible loss of the largest generating unit and also some variation in the forecast load.
These approaches do not normally include any explicit recognition of system risk and do not provide comparable risks for systems of different size or composition.
The concept of system risk is presented in this article and illustrated by comparison with two basic deterministic procedures.
A probabilistic framework for describing the wellbeing of the generating capacity in a small isolated system is proposed and illustrated.
The wellbeing of the system is quantified in terms of system health and margin states, which incorporate the agreed deterministic criteria, in addition to a system risk index which describes the system inadequacy.
Mots-clés Pascal : Théorie, Evaluation risque, Probabilité, Production énergie électrique, Prévision charge électroénergétique, Analyse système, Fiabilité, Compagnie électricité, Réseau électrique
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Reserve capacity assessment, System risk, Deterministic criteria, Small isolated power systems, Theory, Risk assessment, Probability, Electric power generation, Electric load forecasting, Systems analysis, Reliability, Electric utilities, Electric power systems
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 96-0243078
Code Inist : 001D05I01. Création : 199608.