This paper considers a model for the spread of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in a closed, purely heterosexual population.
Using asymptotic expansions, we derive a set of governing partial differential equations to approximate the population of proportion infected.
By assuming a very narrow distribution of partners and a closed population, we examine both the initial spread of the AIDS epidemic and specific subculture populations which lend themselves well to this scenario.
A main issue explored in this paper is determining a way to estimate an individual's infection rate - the probability of becoming infected with HIV given a fixed individual risk.
In particular, as an individual's rick increases, which we define to be the number of different sexual partners per year, we observe, through traveling wave solutions, the increase of an individual's chance of becoming infected.
Mots-clés Pascal : Théorie, Probabilité, Modèle mathématique, Equation dérivée partielle, Risque santé, Evaluation risque, Maladie, Simulation ordinateur, Informatique médicale
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), AIDS heterosexual epidemic model, Asymptotic expansions, Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Theory, Probability, Mathematical models, Partial differential equations, Health risks, Risk assessment, Diseases, Computer simulation, Medical computing
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 96-0189831
Code Inist : 001D02C. Création : 199608.