We estimated what percentage of the observed mortality reduction for women aged 40-49 years at entry into the five Swedish screening trials might be attributable to screening these women at 50 years of age or older.
Moreover, we calculated the most likely percentage mortality reduction for specific screening programs if the Swedish results were generalized and analyzed whether characteristics of each trial might at least partly explain the observed differences in reductions among the trials.
Each Swedish trial was simulated with one underlying computer simulation model (MISCAN-MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis) of the natural history of the disease and the performance of screening, taking into account nine important trial characteristics.
This result indicates that, of the overall 10% observed reduction (RR=0.90) in the five Swedish trials analyzed, most (70%) of this reduction might be attributable to screening these women in later rounds after their 50th birthday.
Results from the Swedish randomized breast cancer-screening trials should be seen as more favorable regarding the effect of mammographic screening in reducing breast cancer mortality for women aged 50-69 years than was estimated earlier.
Our analyses also suggest that the improvement in prognosis due to screening for women aged 40-49 years is much smaller than that for women aged 50 years or older.
Mots-clés Pascal : Tumeur maligne, Glande mammaire, Mammographie, Exploration radiologique, Dépistage, Mortalité, Simulation ordinateur, Epidémiologie, Suède, Europe, Homme, Glande mammaire pathologie, Radiodiagnostic
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Malignant tumor, Mammary gland, Mammography, Radiologic investigation, Medical screening, Mortality, Computer simulation, Epidemiology, Sweden, Europe, Human, Mammary gland diseases, Radiodiagnosis
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 96-0006055
Code Inist : 002B20E02. Création : 01/03/1996.